Day 8 - SW Texas

SPC Convective Outlook

SPC Tornado Risk

Morning surface analysis

At last, a decent chase day! Two areas at play today - around the Davis Mountains in SW Texas where road options are few and far between, and hills/mounts a-plenty, or just south of Lubbock (TX) where the terrain is much flatter. To get us in a reasonable place between the 2 targets, we left our hotel in Alpine (TX) and headed towards Monahans (TX), grabbing some lunch.

It became clear by early afternoon that the Lubbock target probably wouldn't come to very much, so we ditched the idea and dropped southwest to Pecos (TX), then south to Balmorhea (TX). We parked up mid-afternoon to watch the convection firing over the Davis Mountains to our west - Paul Knightley and Helen Rossington joined us once again.

Eventually thunderstorms began to fire, but the one closest to us looked very LP (low precipitation) and disintegrated. We decided to drop south to Fort Davis (TX) and then east back to Alpine (TX) to follow a now severe-warned storm just to the north. This thing was crawling at 10-15mph, and from a distance looked very pretty with lots of bubbling convection but lacked any decent structure or anvil so we were a little sceptical.

Looking east from Fort Davis (TX)

Nonetheless, we stuck with this storm, parked north of Marathon (TX) to let it get closer to us, and then dropped south and east to parallel it. It was very cyclical, a few minutes it would be producing multiple powerful CGs then would go very quiet. It had strong SE inflow winds, and eventually ramped up enough to produce a couple of very brief spin-ups, with dust rotating on the ground in the fields to our north, before a landspout formed with rotating dust stretching upwards with a small white funnel visible at the cloud base. This lasted about a minute, and was our first tornado of this year's chase!

East of Marathon (TX)

East of Marathon (TX)

Dusty landspout (tornado) over open fields east of Marathon (TX) 

Severe thunderstorm east of Marathon (TX)

Our GPS location (blue circle) in relation to the storm

This radar grab is a classic example of why forecasting thunderstorms is difficult. The mean steering flow aloft was generally westerly, yet these clusters of storms are moving SE or straight N (the white lines are storm tracks). Thunderstorms, especially severe (rotating) storms, create their own environment and can deviate from the mean steering flow

By now we were starting to lose daylight and so soon after decided to leave the storm and head north for our hotel in Pecos (TX).

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Day 7 -- SW Texas

SPC Convective Outlook

SPC Tornado Risk

Morning surface analysis

We had to leave the hotel in El Reno (OK) early today as we knew we had an 8-9 hour drive to get onto some storms in SW Texas. Initial target was Fort Stockton (TX), but realistically we would re-evaluate en-route. We grabbed some late lunch in Odessa (TX) and headed towards a couple of severe-warned storms near Alpine (TX). However, by the time we arrived in the evening they were on their last legs, though we did see a brief spell of rather powerful CGs. There was a lot of low stratus in the area which didn't help things much. We were also very close to the Mexico border, and had to pass through Border Control and show our passports on the way back north.

Storms at sunset near Marathon (TX)

Our GPS location (blue circle) and radar

A rather long and frustrating chase day, so we booked a hotel in Alpine (TX) and joined Paul Knightley and Helen Rossington for dinner in McDonalds.

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Day 6 - Rest Day

SPC Convective Outlook

SPC Tornado Risk

Morning surface analysis

The cold front is already racing away to the southeast, and storm modes will be fairly messy within poor chasing terrain (hills and trees) of SE Oklahoma and NE Texas. As such we decided to not chase today, and instead spend some time round David Ewoldt's house in Okarche (OK). He showed us his storm shelter - while rather small and claustrophobic, you have to consider that it will barely be used and only for 10-15 minutes at most.

We know we have a good 8 hour drive to do the next day in order to be in the right place for thunderstorms (SW Texas) so we'll need to leave the hotel early...

A storm shelter

Day 5 - Eastern Kansas

SPC Convective Outlook

SPC Tornado Risk

A very frustrating chase day. After drawing the morning surface analysis, it was clear the triple point was located near Hays (KS) - where we were staying - and was then forecast to slide eastwards to near Salina (KS) by late afternoon. This would then mean the warm sector, and hence atmosphere primed for severe thunderstorms, would also shift eastwards through the day.

As such we left Hays and headed to Salina for lunch, following an early morning round of elevated thunderstorms - these may have become surface-based should there be sufficient surface heating, so we were keeping an eye on them. After lunch we nudged a little further east to Chapman (KS) to sit on the differential heating boundary, while watching towering cumulus rapidly going up and attempting to gain more volume.

Towering cumulus to our west, near Chapman (KS)

By mid-afternoon it was clear the triple point had barely made any progress east, and was still located near Hays. Satellite imagery revealed a SW-NE orientated warm front from Hays northeastwards, so any storms that developed near the triple point would run along this boundary, given the southwesterly steering winds aloft, and would enhance their tornado potential.

However, this was a good 2 hour drive away so while my gut instinct wanted to be near Hays, we were so far away we might as well chase the developing storms some 50 miles to our east - the problem is we were on the wrong side of them, and so ultimately spent a frustrating couple of hours trying to get round them. One of the thunderstorms produced a (damaging) tornado in Lyndon (KS), which we got as close as 15 miles away but it was a very large storm with a lot of precipitation and made it very hard to get a visual so we decided to ditch this storm. This tornado then went on to affect parts of Lawrence (KS) and Kansas City.

By this point we had already seen several photos of the tornado episode north of Hays, near Waldo (KS). A new storm had fired up near Wichita (KS) and was heading northeast, so we headed southwest to meet it but as soon as we arrived it pretty much died in front of us, which just added to the frustration of the day. We parked up to watch the lightning as the sun set, then headed to Wichita for the night - while trying to work out what we could've done differently in order to realise the potential near Hays earlier. Always frustrating when the place you started the day at is the place that then produces tornadoes!

Decaying thunderstorm near Cassoday (KS)

Thunderstorm near Cassoday (KS)

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Day 4 - Kansas Dryline

SPC Convective Outlook

SPC Tornado Risk

Morning surface analysis

Two main targets today - NE Colorado, where storms were very likely, or somewhere along the dryline in Kansas which could remain capped. After much thought, we decided to choose the dryline in the hope that an isolated storm might fire (as opposed to several storms and chaser convergence in NE Colorado). A dryline bulge was situated over the Oklahoma Panhandle, with a zone of moisture convergence extending from here northwards into central Kansas.

Difficult picking a specific area to head to as in theory anywhere along the dry line *could* develop an isolated storm - and if one did develop, parameters were in place for it to become a supercell with a tornado risk. We drifted south from Goodland (KS) to Liberal (KS), after stopping for lunch in Scott City (KS). We met up with Paul Knightley and Helen Rossington in Liberal, and sat for some time watching cumulus attempting to grow to our east - but struggling.

Eventually cumulus became agitated enough near Ness City (KS) that we decided to head north in this general direction - but this was already 100 miles from our location. A storm eventually developed near Ellis (KS), but moving northeast at 20mph - so we spent several hours desperately trying to catch up with the storm. It became tornado-warned, but never produced. As we eventually neared Hays (KS) as darkness fell, it became clear we were never going to be able to catch up with the storm, so we parked up and tried to shoot some lightning (and sprites) just north of town, before heading to a hotel in Hays.

Severe thunderstorm over Osborne (KS), as viewed from Hays (KS)

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Day 3 - Eastern Colorado

SPC Convective Outlook

SPC Tornado Outlook

Morning surface analysis

Starting the day once again in Woodward (OK) we headed northwest through the Oklahoma panhandle, grabbing lunch in Liberal (KS) in the general direction of Johnson City (KS). As we neared our initial target, a supercell thunderstorm had already developed over Springfield (CO) and was producing hail up to 3 inches in diameter (as per reports on Spotter Network). We headed generally west to intercept, but this cell soon decayed as we approached Two Buttes (CO) - where we briefly met Nathan Edwards.

Our position (blue circle) south of the classic supercell signature on radar near Lamar (CO)

A new storm had fired up well to our west, so to keep up with it we headed north to Holly (CO) then west to Lamar (CO) - by which point we were only a few miles from the now-developing wall cloud. We slowly followed this storm north toward Eades (CO) then east to Sharon Springs (CO). Road options were few and far between, which meant some considerable 'chaser convergence'. Traffic ground to a crawl at times (despite being in a 60+mph zone) and we saw several chasers had fallen into ditches.

About as good as the storm looked, outside of Cheyenne Wells (CO)

Approaching Cheyenne Wells (CO) the storm began to exhibit rapid rotation - we thought it might produce a tornado, but it was not to be. The inflow was notably cold (16C plus a 20 knot SE wind feels pretty chilly!). Soon after other storms began to develop and merge into a bowing line, which raced eastwards - we tried our best to keep ahead of the line, but it caught up with us as we neared Goodland (KS). And so ended our chase for the day, with a hotel booked in Goodland.

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Day 2 - Oklahoma Panhandle

SPC Convective Outlook

SPC Tornado Outlook

Morning surface analysis

Starting the day in Woodward (OK), rather grey and overcast, we met up with Dave Ewoldt and his chase partner Ray Walker before setting off in the general direction of Guymon (OK). En-route storms begin to fire over west Texas and the Texas panhandle, with further development eventually across the Oklahoma panhandle and SE Colorado. Some of these storms became severe-warned, but given how many had developed they were all competing with each other and it quickly became a large mess of marginally-severe thunderstorms.

We kept trying to head east out ahead of this now-developing squall line, which started producing 70mph straight line winds. We parked up in Alva (OK) and let the line pass over us, then as it cleared to our east the northern side of a bowing segment became tornado-warned with hints of an inflow notch on radar. It didn't look particularly impressive, so we chose to ignore it and carried on driving back to Woodward (OK) for a hotel for the night.

Our location (blue circle) and the tornado warning to our east

On the way, the setting sun illuminated the mammatus overhead, and created a bright double-rainbow on the back edge of the thunderstorm complex moving away from us. We stopped to take a few photos, then carried on our way.

Double rainbow as the line of storms move away to the west, near Freedom (OK)

Mammatus and rainbow to end the day above our chase vehicle, near Freedom (OK)

Mammatus and faint rainbow near Freedom (OK)

Later in the evening we heard news of a brief tornado at El Reno (OK), which had occurred in a similar vein to the hook echo east of Alva earlier in the evening. Unlike classic supercells that can produce long-track tornadoes with reasonably good visibility of them, QLCS (quasi-linear convective system) tornadoes tend be to very brief, often rain-wrapped on the leading edge of the squall line and while small can be damaging because they can occur out of the blue. This small tornado just happened to touch down over a mobile home park and nearby motel, causing significant damage and sadly fatalities - not helped by the fact it occurred at night (10:30pm).

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Day 1 - Travel Day

SPC Convective Outlook

SPC Tornado Outlook

Not a great deal to talk about today - we had to drive back to Denver Airport to change our hire vehicle as it was too small, which took about 3 hours in total. Then we headed east and south toward NW Oklahoma as this is where we needed to be for Day 2 - but there was the chance of getting onto a storm late in the day.

View of the snow-topped Rockies on our drive back to Denver Airport

Some cool cirrus formations in otherwise largely clear blue sky

We could see a line of thunderstorms in the distance for most of this 8 hour journey, along the cold front that was straddling southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. As we neared Buffalo (OK) a thunderstorm became severe-warned to our east, so we headed towards it to see what it might produce. Sadly it didn't last long and soon fizzled, but it did produce 2 CGs (cloud-to-ground lightning), so not a bust!

Line of severe thunderstorms over central and northern Oklahoma, caused significant flooding issues on already saturated (or flooded) ground

We ended the day at Woodward (OK), a 630 mile trip, roughly in the right location for the following day's expected storms.

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