TUE 05 JUN 2018Ah, the first bust of this year's chasecation - we did well to survive so long! Sometimes ol' Mother Nature has other ideas...
Difficult decision this morning - sandwiched between what looked like a pretty decent setup yesterday to something a bit more mediocre today in North Dakota, and something incredibly marginal that might not even happen in Montana. Given that we probably need to be in Wyoming tomorrow, and the fact that most models didn't break the capping inversion until beyond sunset in North Dakota (so it would be a night-time chase), we opted to scrap the higher tornado threat in the hope of perhaps a nice lone supercell in SE Montana instead (which some models had been keen to flag up).
|SPC Tornado Probability Forecast|
However, after a lunch stop in Miles City (MT) it became clear that nothing had developed - yet - but I also became weary of the decreasing signal in model output and started to doubt anything would actually develop. We continued west and then south to Lame Deer (MT), passing through a line of elevated convection which had some nice undulating cloudscapes, in the hope something might fire en-route... Nothing, so a nudge west towards Garryowen (MT) where we parked up and waited for some time.
|Elevated convection (not much lightning, just some rain) producing some cool undulations to the high cloud base|
|The only tornado-warned storm of the day - in South Dakota. And very few chasers nearby...|